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EXPLORER OF THE MARKETS

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We could see 120 USDJPY first time since Jan 2016. 공감수 8 댓글수 0 2019. 11. 9.
Bank of Korea lowered its policy rate by 25bp again. Short Comment The institution announced that the policy rate became 1.25%. It had been main consensus of markets. Expectation for sluggish economic growth in the country, which IMF lowered to 2% from 2.6% and the concern for deflation could be two main reasons for the determination. Lee Ju-Yeol, Chairman of the institution, has implied that it could decrease the rate to support sluggish economic.. 공감수 4 댓글수 0 2019. 10. 18.
한국은행은 기준금리를 급격하게 낮출 유인을 가지고 있다. 한국은행은 한국의 올해 경제성장률에 대해 상당히 비관적인 전망을 가지고 있다. 한국은행의 이주열 총재는 기존의 전망인 2.2%를 달성하는 것이 어렵다라는 발언을 했다. 상당히 긍정적인 전망을 갖고 있던 한국 정부 역시 현실을 인정하고 있는 상황이다. 이러한 어려움을 극복하기 위해서 한국은행은 내년 하반기까지 기준금리를 0%로 인하할 충분한 유인을 갖고 있는 것으로 보인다. 현재 한국의 경제학자들이 주장하는 기준금리 하한선인 '실효하한'은 1% 내외이다. 이는 거시경제 데이터를 통해 계산한 학술적인 수치이다. 하지만 한국의 금융당국은 이러한 수치를 무시하고 0% 수준까지 내려갈 것으로 보인다. 현 정부는 정책을 시행함에 있어 전통적 경제이론을 따르지 않는 모습을 보여왔다. 최고의 비주류 이론에 속하는 '소.. 공감수 5 댓글수 0 2019. 10. 9.
Policy makers have been breaking markets' expectation. Short Comment Huge policy making days had proceeded: Federal Reserve and Bank of Japan providing the liquidity to the markets. The main point is that they have not followed what market participants want. However, US Treasuries were showing bullish momentum last Friday, with the concern from trade-war between G2. US Federal Reserve decided to lower its policy rate by 25bp on September meeting. It.. 공감수 4 댓글수 0 2019. 9. 22.
Several institutions are lowering expected Korean economic growth rate. Short Comment Public and private institutions have been lowering their numbers for the Korean economy continuously. Factors outside the country are influencing over the economy having huge exposure to exports. The country's exports which have decreased consistently since December last year are proving their main point. Bank of Korea, central bank in the country, has the number of 2.2%, but it is.. 공감수 3 댓글수 0 2019. 9. 16.
Bank of Japan decided to decrease the amount of buying Japanese Government Bonds. Short Comment Bank of Japan, central bank in Japan, has been one of the most impactful institutions in global financial markets with its huge Quantitative Easing policy. As one of the essential parts of Abenomics, the institution has supported Japanese government's policy of weak Yen by providing the currency to the markets directly. Some participants were suggesting that the institution would e.. 공감수 4 댓글수 0 2019. 8. 31.
미국 SPA브랜드 FOREVER21의 파산위기? NEWS 블룸버그에 따르면 미국의 패스트패션 브랜드 FOREVER21 이 유동성 위기를 겪고 있다고 한다. 미국 거대 사모펀드인 Apollo Global Management와 투자유치에 대해서 얘기했다고 하나 협상은 부정적으로 진행되고 있으며, 진행 상황에 따라 파산 신청을 할 가능성이 제기되고 있다고 한다. FOREVER21은 미국 기업으로써 전 세계에 800여개의 매장을 운영하고 있는 전형적인 SPA 유통업체이다. 원인으로는 여러가지가 있겠지만 가장 큰 원인은 유통업의 변화를 따라가지 못한 것이라고 여겨지고 있다. 2010년대 중반 이후 유통업체들이 오프라인매장 투자를 줄이고 온라인 투자를 큰 폭으로 늘리기 시작할 때, FOREVER21은 오히려 오프라인매장 투자를 확장했다고 한다. 시대에 맞지 않는.. 공감수 3 댓글수 0 2019. 8. 30.
Korean government expands its budget by more than 9% for next year. Short Comment Today, Hong Nam-ki, Minister of Economy and Finance in Korea, announced the amount of the budget is KRW513.5trillion for next year, increasing by 9.3% from that of this year. He made it sure that the government wants to offset sluggish private sector by increasing the government's expenses. He also mentioned the uncertainty relevant with trade-war between G2 and the country's confl.. 공감수 3 댓글수 0 2019. 8. 29.
Bullish bond market has its ground on market participants' expectation for bearish macroeconomy. Short Comment US Equities have shown the great volatility recently with inconsistent attitude of US President Donald Trump about trade-war between the US and China. The volatility is being the best news for safe assets including US Treasuries. The securities have enjoyed bull market, even after Mr. Trump eased the tightness with dovish twitter messages about China. Yield of 10year US T-Note is b.. 공감수 3 댓글수 0 2019. 8. 28.
Korean IT-Software sector could be the best sector in the fundamental view at this point. Short CommentMain names in KRX Media & Entertainment index are NAVER Corp (035420.KS), Kakao Corp (035720.KS), NCSoft Corp (036570.KS), and Netmarble Corp (251270.KS). Their services are totally different each other. NAVER’s main product is Search Engine, Kakao’s is Messenger, and NCSoft and Netmarble are operating PC and Mobile Games. Nevertheless, we can tie them up as one sector in point of t.. 공감수 4 댓글수 0 2019. 8. 25.
Local securities brokers' life is relying on the property market: KRX Securities index. 공감수 3 댓글수 0 2019. 8. 25.
Macquarie Korea Infrastructure (088980.KS) is only value stock in Korean stock market. 공감수 4 댓글수 0 2019. 8. 19.
US Federal Reserve does not have appropriate reasons to lower its policy rate dramatically. 공감수 6 댓글수 0 2019. 8. 18.
Bank of Korea will decrease its policy rate to 0%. 공감수 4 댓글수 0 2019. 8. 14.
Bank of Korea is targeting 0% policy rate: Shinhan Financial Group (055550.KS) 공감수 5 댓글수 0 2019. 8. 11.
Political events are dominating the markets. Short Comment US Government was shaking the markets. S&P500 plunged more than 3% for the last week with the politics and messages from US Federal Reserve. HangSeng which represents Emerging Markets went down by more than 5%. In fact, HangSeng is plunging by almost 3% in today market. The down led to strong safe assets. Yield of 10year US Treasury is being transacted below 1.8%, and USDJPY is tar.. 공감수 3 댓글수 0 2019. 8. 5.
US Federal Reserve lowered its policy rate by 25bp on its July meeting. Short Comment Jerome Powell, Chairman of the institution, announced that the institution lowered Federal Funds Rate by 25bp. Two main grounds for the down were worsening economic indices in Europe, Japan, China, and other EM countries, and sluggish inflation in everywhere. He emphasized that the down is a sort of insurance for coming recession. Main consensus among market participants was the do.. 공감수 5 댓글수 0 2019. 8. 2.
The attack of the US led to the plunge of Korean stock market. Short Comment July 26, US President Donald Trump attacked China and South Korea in WTO. The futures of HangSeng and KOSPI200 in the night was looking like fine with the attack, but the indices plunged on next trading day. HangSeng and KOPSI200 fell by 1.03% and 1.65% respectively for July 29. NIKKEI225 and Taiwan Weighted fell just by 0.19% and 0.06% respectively. Mr. Trump did not mention Japan.. 공감수 4 댓글수 0 2019. 7. 29.
10year US T-Note would be in fixed range for a while. 공감수 7 댓글수 3 2019. 7. 27.
한국 주식시장의 이상한 약세 공감수 6 댓글수 0 2019. 7. 27.
Bank of Korea announced the country's GDP growth for 2Q19. Short Comment Bank of Korea said the economic growth for second quarter this year is 1.1% QoQ, and 2.1% YoY. The number is bigger than those of last seven quarters after 3Q17 in Korea. The number could be not bad, but the market did not show nice play. Even though it recovered the down, KOPSI200 recorded -0.72% temporarily. On the other hands, HangSeng and NIKKEI225 had been red all day. Value o.. 공감수 7 댓글수 0 2019. 7. 25.
도이치 방크가 주식 브로커리지 사업에서 철수한다. 독일계 유니버셜 뱅크 도이치 방크는 2010년 이후 지속적으로 어려움을 겪고 있다. 가장 큰 원인은 도이치 방크의 가장 큰 백그라운드인 유럽의 사업 환경 악화이다. 현재 10년물 독일 국채 수익률은 마이너스를 기록하고 있으며 프랑스, 네덜란드, 스위스의 10년물 국채 수익률 역시 마이너스를 기록하고 있다. 투자은행 부문의 한 축인 브로커리지 사업은 미국, 유럽 할 것 없이 세계 전체 시장의 크기 자체가 줄어들고 있다. 또 도이치 방크를 포함한 유럽 은행들은 JP모건, 메릴린치 등 미국 은행들에게 브로커리지 서비스의 시장 점유율을 빼앗기고 있다. 도이치 방크는 은행 자체의 문제를 해결하는 데에도 상당히 오랜 시간이 걸릴 것으로 보인다. IT 인프라 개선, 여전히 실망스러운 실적, 법적인 스캔들 등이 단기간.. 공감수 8 댓글수 0 2019. 7. 23.
Bank of Korea lowered its policy rate Short Comment Today, Bank of Korea announced lowering its policy rate by 25bp to 1.5%, surprising the markets. Main consensus for the policy this time was to freeze the rate. The media and Research Analysts in sell-side industry are suggesting that the stance confirming sluggish regional economy. Bank of Korea lowered its expectation on economic growth from 2.5% to 2.2%, and CPI from 1% to 0.7% .. 공감수 6 댓글수 0 2019. 7. 18.
German Bunds could be the strongest assets among various government bonds. Short Comment Last week, US Federal Reserve sent dovish message to the markets again. Even though non-farm payroll published July 5 was better than expected, Jerome Powell, the leader of the institution, pronounced dovish stance in the House of Representatives July 10. In this point, major expectation about the policy is that the institution will lower the rate by 25bp on the meeting of coming J.. 공감수 7 댓글수 2 2019. 7. 15.
Employment indice is breaking the expectation of market participants. Short Comment Non-farm payroll announced at last Friday was surprising the markets. The expected number was 160,000, but the real number was 224,000. The number higher than expected is disappointing the participants. Some participants had expected the down of 50bp in Federal Funds Rate in the meeting of coming July, but their expectation was broken with the index better than expected. Now, the m.. 공감수 6 댓글수 0 2019. 7. 8.
Japanese Yen has the additional upside. 공감수 6 댓글수 0 2019. 7. 2.
Korean event: The three-way meeting Short Comment There was a big political event yesterday: three way meeting of leaders of the US and two Koreas. The meeting was out of nowhere and the media in the republic has been being fanatical about it. In fact, it is just one of the events which show showmanship of President Trump who is targeting the second office. Moon Jae-In, President of South Korea, and his administration want to beli.. 공감수 5 댓글수 0 2019. 7. 1.
Bullish momentum of US Treasuries will continue for a while despite the rally of stock market. Short Comment 10year US Treasury is being transacted in yield of around 2%. The yield was higher than 3% at its peak in last year. S&P500 is in the rally too, targeting 3,000pt again. Traditional relation between Treasuries and Equities is being broken. The trend should be proceeding for a while.The most important point in the rally of US Treasuries is the stance of central banks. Messages from .. 공감수 7 댓글수 0 2019. 6. 29.
Fundamental value of Samsung Electronics (005930.KS) is decreasing with plunging DRAM and NAND. Short Comment The market is flowing as market participants were anticipating. Main products of Samsung Electronics (005930.KS) and SK Hynix (000660.KS), DRAM and NAND memory have plunged. Average price of DDR4 8G, a kind of DRAM, is around $3.2 nowadays, according to DRAMexchange. Peak of the price was around $8.19 in last year. Average price of 128Gb MLC, a kind of NAND memory, is now around $4.. 공감수 6 댓글수 0 2019. 6. 26.
Global stock markets are recovering the plunge. Short Comment The uncertainty has still proceeded, which is making Federal Reserve alert to the situation. The brokers are suggesting that Federal Reserve could start lowering its interest rate in the latter half of this year. However, The US stock market has shown strong momentum, and S&P500 is targeting 3,000 again. Trade war between the US and the rest of the world is still proceeding. Even t.. 공감수 6 댓글수 0 2019. 6. 19.

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