Short Comment
Public and private institutions have been lowering their numbers for the Korean economy continuously. Factors outside the country are influencing over the economy having huge exposure to exports. The country's exports which have decreased consistently since December last year are proving their main point.
Bank of Korea, central bank in the country, has the number of 2.2%, but it is skeptical about the economy achieving it. At August 30, the day of policy meeting of the institution, Lee Ju-yeol, Chairman of the institution, said that the institution does not have any certainty for the proceeding volatility in global markets. He implied that outside factors like trade-war between G2, the country's trade-conflict with Japan, or populism in Europe could lead the number to additional change anytime. He mentioned about another setback: inflation. CPI in the country was recording -0.04% yoy on Aug.
Many countries, not just Korea, are having consistently lowering numbers. Researchers have been decreasing expected economic growth rates in Japan and Germany for this year consistently. The numbers of countries in Emerging Markets including China, India, or Brazil have decreased much more than the DM countries. Even manufacturing indices in the US was starting to slow. The slowing indices are worsening the numbers of manufactures and exports of the economy.
Public and private institutions have been lowering their numbers for the Korean economy continuously. Factors outside the country are influencing over the economy having huge exposure to exports. The country's exports which have decreased consistently since December last year are proving their main point.
Bank of Korea, central bank in the country, has the number of 2.2%, but it is skeptical about the economy achieving it. At August 30, the day of policy meeting of the institution, Lee Ju-yeol, Chairman of the institution, said that the institution does not have any certainty for the proceeding volatility in global markets. He implied that outside factors like trade-war between G2, the country's trade-conflict with Japan, or populism in Europe could lead the number to additional change anytime. He mentioned about another setback: inflation. CPI in the country was recording -0.04% yoy on Aug.
Many countries, not just Korea, are having consistently lowering numbers. Researchers have been decreasing expected economic growth rates in Japan and Germany for this year consistently. The numbers of countries in Emerging Markets including China, India, or Brazil have decreased much more than the DM countries. Even manufacturing indices in the US was starting to slow. The slowing indices are worsening the numbers of manufactures and exports of the economy.
Despite slowing manufacturing indices, the US economy still has the bullish momentum leading S&P500 to 3,000s again. HangSeng and KOPSI200 have followed the recovery, but they are lowering their high points continuously. At the end of 2017, KOSPI200 was 320-330, and S&P500 was 2,600-2,700. Now, KOSPI200 is 270, and S&P500 is above 3,000.
Considering the degraded high-points, KOPSI200 could not touch 300 even if S&P500 touched 3,200. Overall big shares do not have fundamental strengths at this point except a few ones like Samsung Electronics (005930.KS), SK Hynix (000660.KS), or NAVER (035420.KS). Decreasing amount of trading and fees of local brokers' equity brokerage services have appropriate grounds. My target point of KOSPI200 at the end of this year is 285.