Short comment
US President Donald Trump is giving strong pressure to China and China is not stepping back. The conflict is maximizing the volatility, and the plunge of S&P500 already started, targeting 2,800.
We do not need to be surprised about it. In fact, the volatility already was in the market. The risky factors are in everywhere, not just the trade-war. Sluggish macroeconomic situation in Europe, China and other Asian countries and Japan, decreasing yield spread between long-term and short-term US treasuries or rising equities of fortress-balance sheet companies were appearing in the market all the time. Another volatile movement like that during 4Q18 is not weird at all.
The plunge could continue for a while and proceed much longer and stronger than expected like it did during 4Q18. S&P500 touched 2,929.67 at September 21 but plunged to 2,351.10 at December 24 in 2018. My target of S&P500 is 2,600 at this point.
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