Everyone expects EUR started its momentum.

Short comment

Many Banks expect EURUSD started it's recovery from 7% down from mid-Apr to end-May.

Their main reasons are various, but typical.

Fiscal deficit which will start to snowballing with policies from Trump administration, strengthening recovery momentum of Eurozone and direction of ECB QE which probably end in Sep.

But I don't think so. I believe EURUSD which is climbing to 1.18 in now, will be reversed soon.

First, fiscal deficit isn't that big issue now. It could be in next or after next year, but not in now.

But in now, let see situation of stock market, economical momentum from fiscal policy will be effected to the market in favorable way now.

And actually, Eurozone isn't alternative about US tresuries if it's based on debt-ratio.

Average debt-GDP ratio in the region is more than 85%, and a problem of any country in the zone could trigger the issue.

The ratio of Italy is more than 130%, for example, and market participants were worrying about it seriously.

The problem could spread other vulnerable countries like Spain, Greece or Portugal.

Second, momentum of Eurozone is becoming weak like European institutions are lowering their forecast to indices.

Many analysts would be changing their perspective to global growth in now, from US-Eurozone to US only.

Last, end of ECB QE couldn't be enough to strengthen EUR because rates in the zone will be too low compared with that in US.

I think economic momentum of US is too strong, and EUR couldn't win USD because it's time for the momentum.