There are no obstacles to stop weakening USDJPY

1. Recent condition

USDJPY has risen with strong USD like other currencies.

Japanese QE has been being continued, but looks like more effective factor is strength of USD.

But sometime, JPY often show its hyper-strength displaying rise even against strong USD, when some risks come up in global markets.

JPY is the safest asset during a decade, according to report of Goldman Sachs at 10, July.

In this week, the risk factor were Turkish rout and Italian rising star.

2. Macro factors which are leading to strong USD

Then let see macro economic factors relevant with JPY.

First factor is strong USD. Nowadays, USD is sharply rising with economic fundamental.

In short-term, stances of authorities are the strongest factor.

In long-term, However, economic fundamental overcome the stances.

There are many historical examples for proving this, and let see most recent example.

So, USD was going down with Trump government's perspective of protective trade during 2017 whole year.

But the efficacy faded from mid-Apr, and from the time, the macro factors like much higher market yield of US against those of other DMs, relatively strong economic-growth of the states or easing stances of ECB and BoJ have dominted currency market.

The market participants are thinking that Fed would withdraw their tightening stance more or less, based on disclose of minute of the meeting at May.

But it's just temporary issue. Fed will raises Federal Fund Rate at least two times more, and not ignores continued worries and signals of bubbles in stock and real-estates.

It's not a surpise at all that next minute show that real stance of Fed is hard-hawksh.

And about stance of authorities, BoJ and Japanese government never think about quiting their QE unlike Euporean authorities do.

Actually, there would be to re-expand easing.

Those macro factors are too strong to reverse strong upside trend of USD.

3. Japanese stock market

Second factor is the movement of domestic stock market.

the relationship between stock market and currency market different according to eocnomic matrix of the countries or time to time.

In now, reverse relationship has been proceeding between two markets.

Climbing Japanese stock market and weakening JPY could be limited occasionally with abrupt attacks of president Trump.

But I believe its state isn't that bad because competitivenesses of Japanese companies are enough to endure the pressures

For example, Toyota, Nissan and Honda are already prepared to increase of tariff as the level which German and Korean companies couldn't achieve yet.

4. Economic and politicl uncertainties ins't strong enough to beat stength of economic expansion

A few uncertainties are still proceeding like the weakest currencies of EMs including Argentina, Turkey and South-Africa, geopolitical problems in middle-east or rising populist in EU.

But strong global economic growth is too hard to be overcame by those uncertainties.

Even if Chinese strength isn't performed as much as it was before, their GDP growth is still in 6% line.

Confidences of United States and Europe are enough to provide cushion to those uncertainties.

There is enough possbility of hard-landing of US at next year or after next year, but the market's worry for it looks like being quiet more or less.

Even if I think the worry could come up anytime, still don't think it can't be a reason why I should drop weakness of JPY

5. Conclusion and my target

I believe USDJPY could show its strength temporarily, but its fundametal trend to downside is still vaild.

My first target for USDJPY is 113.